2023 Portfolio Performance & Thoughts

Author's Notice: Hello everyone! Before I begin this post, I would just like to point out that I recently started a Youtube Channel, rebranding myself as "The Incipient Investor", and have posted a rather comprehensive analysis & valuation of Raffles Medical on there so do check it out if you've missed that! I'll be creating videos to accompany every blog post now moving forward, even this one! Thanks for the support!

To start off this post, I'd just like to say that I know I'm rather late when it comes to analysing my portfolio performance for 2023. 

I'd first like to commemorate an important milestone that my portfolio has crossed, which is the 20K figure, only achieving it just recently during the final days of December when equities significantly rallied due to the Federal Reserve singing more dovish tones, resulting in the market starting to price in multiple interest rate cuts starting as early as 2H FY24. 

My Portfolio Holdings End of 2023 

Before you come at me, yes, I know my portfolio is extremely over-concentrated. It's basically only two stocks, with about 2k SGD being parked in Fullerton SGD Cash Fund "A" to accumulate interest at elevated rates while interest rates remain high. I would also like to mention that I did a trade by buying 300 units of CICT at $1.71 per unit back in October when REITs experienced a pullback, then later selling it in December for $2.02. My rationale for doing this is that I believe we will see relatively higher interests as the new normal, so assuming that blue-chip REITs will return to pre-hike prices is at least to me, not the best to make. Since investors would naturally demand higher dividend yields, I opine that if we were to maintain the historic dividend yield spread, the new standard dividend yield for blue chips should be around a mid 5% to 6+%. Of course, this is just my gut feeling. 

United Hampshire US REIT has run up quite significantly in recent times, and given the fact that it already makes up the majority of my portfolio, I don't think I will add much to it, assuming I do. In fact, should prices near the 0.6 USD per unit mark, I will begin to slightly trim the position. 

Keppel Corp has also maintained a great performance, breaching the $7 per unit mark. Personally, I find no need to trim stakes in my Keppel Corp position given the fact that I believe it is a solid long term-hold with great growth prospects should it be on track regarding the management's 2030 vision.

Portfolio Performance According To Tiger Brokers

My portfolio performance has been satisfactory in my opinion, generating alpha and higher risk-adjusted returns, which justifies the massive under-diversification I have practiced. 

In addition, I have been receiving rewards from Tiger Brokers due to being a captain in the 2023-2024 Elite Team Trading Competition, with my team typically ranking 25-40th in the monthly rankings. So far, I have received $100 in cash vouchers which I am thankful for, since that basically means Tiger has paid me more than I've paid them in fees. 

As of right now, I find myself being petrified by the recent run-up in the stock market. I understand that you must divorce intrinsic value and the entry price, but it seems like I am paralysed by fear when the stock market rises, which is a rather critical flaw in my investing mindset since the stock market more often than not goes up. It's quite odd that I'm fearful when markets go up isn't it haha! I simply cannot find much quality bargains in the current market climate. 

In terms of my 2024 outlook, I definitely want to diversify my portfolio. I'm reaching a critical point in terms of portfolio value where I don't think I can feel at ease letting the fate of my savings be solely dictated by 1 or 2 stocks. Consequently, I aim to initiate substantial positions in at least 3-4 new stocks with differing industry sectors, probably consisting of the larger cap stocks that I've covered in this blog. I believe the SG banks are currently still undervalued and despite interest rates potentially dropping, I believe loan volume increase will more than compensate for the drop in Net Interest Margins. My gut feeling is that we'll have a mild recession in 2024 but that's simply felt and unfounded, without any facts backing it up, so perhaps I might initiate a position in a defensive stock. Overall, I'm simply at a loss with what to invest in for 2024. Perhaps I will maintain a higher cash allocation or simply force myself to be comfortable investing further. Who knows? I may unexpectedly find some undervalued gems. 

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I have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies I have mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. All content published by me should not be construed as any sort of financial or investment advice and is simply for informational purposes. Although all research and figures are accurate and calculated to the best of my ability, I am not liable for any decisions made based on inaccurate information.